Dangerous Decisions by Jim Stovall

Success in our personal and professional lives comes when we make good decisions. Good decisions are the result of applying enough information to the questions at hand. The more valid and accurate information we can bring to bear as we determine what to do, the easier the choice becomes. I believe an average fifth grader could make good decisions about life and policy if they just had enough of the correct information.

Unfortunately, we live in a world here in the 21st century in which we are buried in data—much of which confuses more than clarifies the decisions we need to make. President Harry Truman said, “There are lies, damn lies, and statistics.” As usual, Truman cut through the noise and clutter to get to the heart of the matter.

It is important as we look at research that we understand correlation and causality. Just because two things happen simultaneously doesn’t mean they are connected. There is a lot of research that indicates that ice cream sales rise significantly in the summer. There is further research that shows that the number of auto thefts reported increases during the warmer months. If we only look at statistics that correlate without considering causality, we might assume that consuming ice cream causes people to steal cars.

As we are looking at data, it is important to consider the source it comes from as well as any agendas or prejudices that might be in play. Data from unreliable sources may simply be inaccurate, or it may have been gathered in such a way to point toward a pre-determined conclusion. While anecdotal information may help cause us to do further research, it should not be used as criteria for making a decision.

You may be wondering about the validity of a particular type of investment when you hear that your neighbor’s best friend’s cousin’s barber knew a guy at the muffler shop who either got rich or lost all of his money in that investment. While anecdotes may pique our interest, they are only useful for asking questions, not formulating answers.

Allowing other people to interpret the results of studies or research can be perilous. I remember, during the Cold War, there was a study that showed the United States ranked first in the field of high tech education, and the Soviet Union ranked second. However, when it was reported in the Soviet news media, the Soviet’s ranked second worldwide while the Americans ranked next to last.

Just because something’s accurate doesn’t make it valid or reliable.

As you go through your day today, get to the heart of research before your make a decision.

Today’s the day!

Jim Stovall is the president of Narrative Television Network as well as a published author of many books including The Ultimate Gift. He is also a columnist and motivational speaker. He may be reached at 5840 South Memorial Drive, Suite 312, Tulsa, OK 74145-9082; by email at Jim@JimStovall.com; on Twitter at www.twitter.com/stovallauthor; or on Facebook at www.facebook.com/jimstovallauthor.